empty
11.04.2025 12:47 AM
The Euro Charges Ahead. Opponents Retreat

A rally in European stock indices, slowing U.S. inflation, and the fact that the average U.S. tariff has not changed significantly despite the 90-day deferral all contributed to the rise of EUR/USD. The main currency pair seems ready to restore its bullish trend and appears unconcerned about the slowdown in the German economy or the European Central Bank's upcoming deposit rate cut.

The impressive surge in the EuroStoxx 600 echoed the record-breaking rally of the S&P 500 — the strongest since 2008. Donald Trump's decision to introduce a tariff deferral encouraged investors on both sides of the Atlantic. According to the U.S. administration, about 70 countries are ready for negotiations, and 15 have already submitted concrete proposals. Capital inflows into the Eurozone have been one of the key drivers of the EUR/USD rally in 2025. It's no surprise that bulls enthusiastically welcomed the rise in European equities.

EuroStoxx 600 Performance

This image is no longer relevant

The slowdown in U.S. consumer prices added fuel to the dollar selloff against major global currencies. In March, the monthly core inflation rate fell to 0.1%—the lowest level in the past nine months. The figure rose by 2.8% yearly, marking the slowest pace in four years.

The final CPI figures suggest that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—is also likely to decelerate in March. This could lead to a potential federal funds rate cut in the coming months and deal a blow to EUR/USD bears.

U.S. Inflation Trends

This image is no longer relevant

Moreover, recession risks in the U.S. economy haven't disappeared. Markets tend to react first and analyze later. Investors heard the word "deferral" from the White House but ignored that the universal 10% tariff remains in effect, and the rate on Chinese imports has increased to 125%. As a result, the average tariff rate has barely changed — falling only slightly from 27% to 24%. This is the highest level since the early 1900s and negatively impacts the global and U.S. economies.

This image is no longer relevant

The euro also gained support from the European Union's decision to delay the tariffs it had planned as retaliation for the U.S. 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Is Brussels happy about the drop in tariffs from 20% to 10%? That final 10% remains in place and is expected to weigh heavily on the eurozone economy. According to German research institutes, Germany's GDP is expected to grow by just 0.1% in 2025. Nevertheless, the lesser one is often chosen when faced with two evils.

Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD attempts to restore its upward trend. Long positions initiated from 1.097 and added to the move above 1.105 should be held. Target levels for the long side remain at 1.13 and 1.16.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Libra esterlina: Previsão semanal

Vários relatórios interessantes foram divulgados no Reino Unido, mas tiveram pouco impacto nas ações dos participantes do mercado. A demanda pela libra esterlina aumentou em todos os cinco dias, exceto

Chin Zhao 15:23 2025-04-21 UTC+2

Dólar americano: Previsão semanal

Com base na análise do EUR/USD, concluo que o par continua construindo uma nova fase de tendência de alta. As ações de Donald Trump reverteram a tendência de baixa anterior

Chin Zhao 15:16 2025-04-21 UTC+2

EUR/GBP. Análise e previsão

O fortalecimento do par está vinculado ao aumento do euro em meio à fraqueza do dólar dos E.U.A., impulsionado por preocupações sobre uma possível recessão nos E.U.A. e questões sobre

Irina Yanina 15:05 2025-04-21 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Análise e previsão

O ouro está passando por uma retração corretiva hoje, com os investidores realizando lucros após seu recente aumento para um novo recorde histórico. Essa queda, embora moderada, é impulsionada

Irina Yanina 17:07 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Powell prevê uma política mais restritiva do Fed este ano

O euro mostrou pouca reação, enquanto a libra esterlina recuou levemente frente ao dólar americano após o discurso de ontem do presidente do Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. Segundo Powell

Jakub Novak 16:47 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Os mercados oscilam entre a euforia e o pânico

Se você acredita que uma recessão está se aproximando, a regra é simples: venda primeiro, faça perguntas depois. Quando o National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declarou oficialmente uma recessão

Marek Petkovich 15:43 2025-04-17 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Análise e previsão

Sobre as próximas mudanças na política monetária do Banco Central Europeu (BCE) e do Federal Reserve (Fed): A expectativa de um corte de 25 pontos-base por parte do BCE —

Irina Yanina 14:25 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Será que o euro está pronto para outro corte nas taxas?

Em breve saberemos se o euro está novamente preparado para que o Banco Central Europeu (BCE) continue a flexibilizar a política monetária. Hoje, espera-se que o BCE reduza as taxas

Jakub Novak 14:06 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Sem progresso nas negociações

Nesta semana, a União Europeia e os Estados Unidos avançaram significativamente na resolução de disputas comerciais, após autoridades do governo do presidente Donald Trump indicarem que a maior parte

Jakub Novak 20:05 2025-04-16 UTC+2

O confronto entre os EUA e a China terá um impacto negativo sobre os mercados (potencial para novas quedas na #NDX e na Litecoin)

O otimismo do mercado, impulsionado pela manipulação ativa da narrativa tarifária por parte de Donald Trump, foi de curta duração. Os traders seguem focados na escalada das tensões entre

Pati Gani 17:04 2025-04-16 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.