empty
19.03.2025 12:46 AM
The Euro Fires a Bazooka

The last time Germany armed itself was in the 1930s, it led to World War II. Today, German militarization is welcomed. According to Bloomberg estimates, fiscal stimulus packages worth around $1 trillion will add one percentage point to GDP in the near term, bringing it to 2% by 2024. This will push bond yields higher, and the narrowing spread with U.S. Treasuries will create a strong foundation for a long-term uptrend in EUR/USD. Is it time to jump on the last northbound train?

Germany's Bond Yield Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

Germany's shift from fiscal restraint to fiscal expansion is being compared to the Marshall Plan, which helped rebuild Europe after World War II. As the U.S. moves to curb government spending, this divergence in fiscal policy—which previously favored EUR/USD bears—now favors the euro. Instead of American exceptionalism, we now see German exceptionalism.

The currency pair broke through key resistance at 1.091 and climbed toward 1.095, fueled by growing confidence in German business. The ZEW economic expectations index surged to its highest level since February 2022, driven by hopes for large-scale stimulus packages from Friedrich Merz. The current conditions indicator also improved.

Investor Confidence in Germany's Economy

This image is no longer relevant

The euro's long-term outlook remains positive, but the EUR/USD rally may be limited in the short term for three reasons. First, the "Trump trade" has run its course. Second, the market is overestimating the risk of a U.S. recession. Third, expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve monetary easing are likely exaggerated.

The U.S. dollar index strengthened by 7% from its September lows thanks to the "Trump trade"—investors betting on U.S. economic acceleration and the Fed keeping rates high. However, by mid-March, EUR/USD had returned to its levels from the November elections, recovering most of its previous losses. It's time to reap the profits.

According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the U.S. economy is in good shape with no signs of an impending recession. Investors were spooked by Donald Trump's comments, where he did not rule out an economic slowdown or a series of disappointing data releases. However, other reports suggest that the economy remains stable. Renewed market optimism could drive renewed dollar buying alongside the gradual scaling back of expectations for Fed rate cuts. Markets anticipate a 70-basis-point cut by the end of 2025—likely too much.

On the daily EUR/USD chart, an "Anti-Turtles" pattern may be forming. A drop below support at 1.089 would be a signal to sell. However, buying strategies could regain momentum if the pair fails to reach that level or bounces back after testing it.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Como os mercados podem reagir após a reunião do Fed? (Esperando uma queda acentuada no GBP/USD e uma queda no #SPX)

Hoje, o mercado estará focado na decisão final da Reserva Federal sobre a política monetária. Não se espera que traga novidades, portanto, o tema principal deverá continuar o mesmo

Pati Gani 17:08 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 19 de março? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Há poucos eventos macroeconômicos programados para esta quarta-feira, o que sugere que a volatilidade de ambos os pares de moedas pode permanecer baixa até a noite. O dólar continua

Paolo Greco 17:01 2025-03-19 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

O ouro interrompeu seu movimento de alta enquanto tenta se consolidar em novos máximos históricos em torno de US$ 3.045, com os touros fazendo uma pausa antes dos resultados

Irina Yanina 16:04 2025-03-19 UTC+2

O mercado de ações paga caro pela retórica de Washington

O efeito bumerangue: o que vai, volta Os EUA estão se afastando da globalização, e é apenas uma questão de tempo até que enfrentem as consequências. De acordo

Marek Petkovich 15:39 2025-03-19 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

O par USD/CAD está mostrando sinais de recuperação pelo segundo dia consecutivo após uma recente queda, reagindo a partir da mínima de duas semanas, em torno de 1,4260. Os preços

Irina Yanina 15:26 2025-03-19 UTC+2

WTI ganha apoio com o aumento das tensões geopolíticas no Médio Oriente

Pelo terceiro dia consecutivo, o petróleo bruto West Texas Intermediate (WTI) continua atraindo compradores. Atualmente, a commodity é negociada ligeiramente acima do nível psicológico chave de US$ 68,00, acumulando alta

Irina Yanina 22:09 2025-03-18 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o iene japonês continua em queda, impulsionando o USD/JPY para perto do nível psicológico chave de 150,00, com o par atingindo uma nova máxima de dois dias em torno

Irina Yanina 20:10 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Dados positivos da China e o aumento do apetite por risco sustentam uma perspectiva de alta para o Kiwi - Análise do NZD/USD

O dólar neozelandês (NZD) ganhou outro forte fator de alta, já que o Índice ANZ de Preços de Commodities registrou outro sólido aumento em fevereiro, subindo 3,0%

Kuvat Raharjo 17:18 2025-03-18 UTC+2

Não são esperadas grandes surpresas na reunião do Fed, com previsão de uma queda acentuada do EUR/USD e um crescimento contínuo e cauteloso do preço do ouro

Os mercados estão passando por uma turbulência devido ao risco de uma recessão econômica nos EUA. Embora o Secretário do Tesouro, Bessent, tente tranquilizar os investidores chamando a "correção"

Pati Gani 16:42 2025-03-18 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.