empty
12.06.2023 12:09 PM
GBP/USD turns bullish on positive UK economy, repo rate outlook

The British pound is effectively leveraging its advantages. The UK economy is likely to avoid a recession, which distinguishes the sterling from the euro. Looking at a strong labor market and rapid wage growth, the Bank of England will continue to raise the repo rate above 5%. The divergence in monetary policy with the Federal Reserve (Fed) contributes to a rally in GBP/USD. The pair has reached monthly highs, which, amid the calmness of the Forex market before the storm, indicates serious bullish intentions.

The Confederation of British Industry has raised its UK GDP forecast from -0.4% to +0.4% in 2023 and from +1.6% to +1.8% in 2024. The main reasons cited are the recovery of the Chinese economy after COVID-19-related restrictions and the easing of disruptions in global supply chains. According to Bloomberg experts, the British economy is expected to expand by 0.3% in April after contracting by 0.3% in March, essentially signaling stagnation. However, the fact that a recession will be avoided provides support for GBP/USD.

Expectations of an acceleration in average wages from 5.8% to 6.1% over three months through April are driving the pound upward. These expectations are related to a 9.7% increase in the minimum wage in mid-spring, which has benefited around 1.6 million people in the UK. The strength of the labor market is a strong argument for raising the repo rate above 5%, contributing to a rally in UK bond yields and GBP/USD quotes.

Dynamics of British bond yields

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, the sterling is playing its own cards, taking advantage of the consolidation of the U.S. dollar ahead of important releases of U.S. inflation data for May and the Fed's meetings. Bloomberg experts predict a slowdown in consumer prices from 4.9% to 4.1%. However, this should not be misleading. Core inflation will decrease from 5.5% to 5.2% but will remain elevated. Monthly CPI will accelerate to 0.4%.

As for the Federal Reserve's meeting, the futures market expects the rate to be maintained at 5.25% in June, with a subsequent increase to 5.5% in July. It is likely that Jerome Powell will adopt a hawkish rhetoric during his press conference, and the FOMC's rate forecasts will be raised. In theory, this should lead to an increase in Treasury bond yields and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. However, any surprises are possible.

This image is no longer relevant

In my opinion, the persistence of high U.S. inflation combined with signals from the Fed about further rate hikes will limit the potential for a GBP/USD rally.

Technically, on the daily chart, the bulls intend to restore the upward trend. The presence of quotes above dynamic support in the form of moving averages indicates that buyers are in control of the market. However, the inability of GBP/USD to break above the 1.2645 pivot level or a drop below the support at 1.2565 will indicate weakness in the bulls and provide a basis for forming short positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

Hoje, após a divulgação de dados que mostram uma desaceleração no Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC) nacional de fevereiro, o iene japonês continua sendo negociado com um tom negativo

Irina Yanina 17:20 2025-03-21 UTC+2

Mercado de ações dos EUA se preparando para a hora zero

A Reserva Federal tem feito todo o possível para acalmar os mercados, mas em 2025, os holofotes se desviaram do banco central. O S&P 500 ignorou os dados positivos sobre

Marek Petkovich 17:16 2025-03-21 UTC+2

O dólar retoma sua posição

Os mercados agem primeiro e fazem perguntas depois. Ao ouvir a garantia de Jerome Powell de que o Federal Reserve tinha tudo sob controle e que não haveria recessão

Marek Petkovich 16:21 2025-03-21 UTC+2

Os mercados estão presos em um ciclo vicioso sem saída à vista (potencial queda do Bitcoin e do ouro)

Atualmente, os mercados enfrentam um choque significativo, impulsionado por um sentimento negativo persistente que pesa sobre eles como um fardo, sem uma solução clara à vista. Diante desse cenário

Pati Gani 17:36 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Mensagem do Fed é música para os ouvidos dos touros

O Fed não está oferecendo uma tábua de salvação para o S&P 500, mas será que o índice realmente precisa de uma? Salva-vidas são para quem está se afogando, enquanto

Marek Petkovich 17:36 2025-03-20 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

O ouro registra uma leve queda após atingir um novo recorde histórico, mantendo uma postura defensiva. Os traders otimistas estão mais cautelosos, refletindo as condições de sobrecompra no gráfico diário

Irina Yanina 14:09 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Como os mercados podem reagir após a reunião do Fed? (Esperando uma queda acentuada no GBP/USD e uma queda no #SPX)

Hoje, o mercado estará focado na decisão final da Reserva Federal sobre a política monetária. Não se espera que traga novidades, portanto, o tema principal deverá continuar o mesmo

Pati Gani 17:08 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Em que prestar atenção em 19 de março? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Há poucos eventos macroeconômicos programados para esta quarta-feira, o que sugere que a volatilidade de ambos os pares de moedas pode permanecer baixa até a noite. O dólar continua

Paolo Greco 17:01 2025-03-19 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

O ouro interrompeu seu movimento de alta enquanto tenta se consolidar em novos máximos históricos em torno de US$ 3.045, com os touros fazendo uma pausa antes dos resultados

Irina Yanina 16:04 2025-03-19 UTC+2

O mercado de ações paga caro pela retórica de Washington

O efeito bumerangue: o que vai, volta Os EUA estão se afastando da globalização, e é apenas uma questão de tempo até que enfrentem as consequências. De acordo

Marek Petkovich 15:39 2025-03-19 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.