Analisis Forex & Kajian: 18.06.2024 - The euro also led last week's...

18.06.2024 12:44 AM

The euro also led last week's decline against the US dollar

The euro fell due to several factors that collectively exert significant pressure on it. First, the European Central Bank was expected to start its rate-cutting cycle earlier than the Federal Reserve. Before last week, the first Fed rate cut was expected to take place in November. By then, the ECB might have already lowered its rate twice, which would naturally lead to a change in the yield spread in favor of the dollar.

This played a key role last week, but after the release of U.S. data indicating a decline in producer prices, the market is now anticipating two Fed rate cuts this year, the first of which is expected in September. Therefore, the factor of changing the yield spread in favor of the dollar has already been accounted for and will no longer impact the euro exchange rate.

The second reason is more serious and is political in nature. In France, Macron's party, Renaissance, suffered a crushing defeat to Le Pen's party, National Rally (RN), and Macron's approval rating is at its lowest since 2018. Macron announced early elections, with the first round set to take place on June 30. A victory for Le Pen's party could overturn Macron's reforms and lead to increased tension within the EU. Growing uncertainty reduced the demand for risk, European stocks are falling behind the market, and pressure on the euro has increased.

Another important factor is the slower-than-expected pace of economic recovery in the Eurozone. In April, industrial production decreased by 0.1% against a forecasted growth of 0.2%, and the annual index slowed from -1.2% to -3%. The Eurozone economy's weakness adds pressure on the ECB to begin adjusting monetary policy, increasing the chances of an earlier start to the rate-cutting cycle.

The second estimate of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index for May will be published on Tuesday. No changes are expected, with the forecast suggesting that the index will remain at the same level of 2.6%. A lower value will increase pressure on the euro, while a higher value will allow the euro to recover some of last week's losses.

The CFTC report showed a change in the demand for the euro after six weeks of improvement, with the net long position decreasing from $9.2 billion to $5.6 billion during the reporting week. While the bullish bias remains intact, the price has sharply fallen below the long-term average, highlighting the strength of the bearish momentum.

EUR/USD has fallen to the support level of 1.0690/0700 but failed to stay below it. The pair failed to reach 1.0650/60. However, given the strength of the bearish momentum, the price could still make an attempt to reach 1.0650/60, although there are no grounds for a deeper decline at the moment. We expect the situation to become clearer after the release of the Eurozone CPI report on Tuesday. For now, we advise you to sell on the rise with the goal of breaking below 1.0650. Take note that this is only a short-term scenario. Since the market has returned to the idea of two Fed rate cuts this year, it is unlikely for the euro to show a drastic decline.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Kuvat Raharjo,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
© 2007-2025

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

XAU/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Pasaran Tiada Lagi Tempat untuk Dijalankan

Nilai Dolar AS Meningkat — Inilah Sebabnya

Mengapa Harga Emas Boleh Menurun Secara Signifikan? (Terdapat kemungkinan emas akan terus merosot manakala CFD pada kontrak niaga hadapan NASDAQ 100 mungkin meningkat)

Gambaran GBP/USD – 25 April: Fed Mula Bimbang Dengan Serius

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 25 April: Amerika Syarikat Memfailkan Saman Terhadap Trump

Apakah yang Perlu Diberi Perhatian pada 25 April? Pecahan Acara Asas kepada Pedagang Baharu

Yen Kelihatan Semakin Kuat

Kanada Menunggu Keputusan Pilihan Raya. Tinjauan USD/CAD

Dolar Australia Mungkin Terjejas Jika Perang Perdagangan AS-China Semakin Memuncak

Analisis terbaik